diff -r ec2a8bd1615b -r 1805414a18bc hotspot/src/share/vm/gc/g1/g1CollectorPolicy.cpp
--- a/hotspot/src/share/vm/gc/g1/g1CollectorPolicy.cpp	Thu Dec 10 13:38:18 2015 -0500
+++ b/hotspot/src/share/vm/gc/g1/g1CollectorPolicy.cpp	Thu Dec 10 18:55:58 2015 +0000
@@ -191,6 +191,7 @@
 
   _recent_prev_end_times_for_all_gcs_sec->add(os::elapsedTime());
   _prev_collection_pause_end_ms = os::elapsedTime() * 1000.0;
+  clear_ratio_check_data();
 
   _phase_times = new G1GCPhaseTimes(_parallel_gc_threads);
 
@@ -1080,6 +1081,14 @@
         _recent_avg_pause_time_ratio = 1.0;
       }
     }
+
+    // Compute the ratio of just this last pause time to the entire time range stored
+    // in the vectors. Comparing this pause to the entire range, rather than only the
+    // most recent interval, has the effect of smoothing over a possible transient 'burst'
+    // of more frequent pauses that don't really reflect a change in heap occupancy.
+    // This reduces the likelihood of a needless heap expansion being triggered.
+    _last_pause_time_ratio =
+      (pause_time_ms * _recent_prev_end_times_for_all_gcs_sec->num()) / interval_ms;
   }
 
   bool new_in_marking_window = collector_state()->in_marking_window();
@@ -1597,41 +1606,124 @@
   _prev_collection_pause_end_ms = end_time_sec * 1000.0;
 }
 
-size_t G1CollectorPolicy::expansion_amount() const {
+void G1CollectorPolicy::clear_ratio_check_data() {
+  _ratio_over_threshold_count = 0;
+  _ratio_over_threshold_sum = 0.0;
+  _pauses_since_start = 0;
+}
+
+size_t G1CollectorPolicy::expansion_amount() {
   double recent_gc_overhead = recent_avg_pause_time_ratio() * 100.0;
+  double last_gc_overhead = _last_pause_time_ratio * 100.0;
   double threshold = _gc_overhead_perc;
-  if (recent_gc_overhead > threshold) {
-    // We will double the existing space, or take
-    // G1ExpandByPercentOfAvailable % of the available expansion
-    // space, whichever is smaller, bounded below by a minimum
-    // expansion (unless that's all that's left.)
-    const size_t min_expand_bytes = 1*M;
+  size_t expand_bytes = 0;
+
+  // If the heap is at less than half its maximum size, scale the threshold down,
+  // to a limit of 1. Thus the smaller the heap is, the more likely it is to expand,
+  // though the scaling code will likely keep the increase small.
+  if (_g1->capacity() <= _g1->max_capacity() / 2) {
+    threshold *= (double)_g1->capacity() / (double)(_g1->max_capacity() / 2);
+    threshold = MAX2(threshold, 1.0);
+  }
+
+  // If the last GC time ratio is over the threshold, increment the count of
+  // times it has been exceeded, and add this ratio to the sum of exceeded
+  // ratios.
+  if (last_gc_overhead > threshold) {
+    _ratio_over_threshold_count++;
+    _ratio_over_threshold_sum += last_gc_overhead;
+  }
+
+  // Check if we've had enough GC time ratio checks that were over the
+  // threshold to trigger an expansion. We'll also expand if we've
+  // reached the end of the history buffer and the average of all entries
+  // is still over the threshold. This indicates a smaller number of GCs were
+  // long enough to make the average exceed the threshold.
+  bool filled_history_buffer = _pauses_since_start == NumPrevPausesForHeuristics;
+  if ((_ratio_over_threshold_count == MinOverThresholdForGrowth) ||
+      (filled_history_buffer && (recent_gc_overhead > threshold))) {
+    size_t min_expand_bytes = HeapRegion::GrainBytes;
     size_t reserved_bytes = _g1->max_capacity();
     size_t committed_bytes = _g1->capacity();
     size_t uncommitted_bytes = reserved_bytes - committed_bytes;
-    size_t expand_bytes;
     size_t expand_bytes_via_pct =
       uncommitted_bytes * G1ExpandByPercentOfAvailable / 100;
-    expand_bytes = MIN2(expand_bytes_via_pct, committed_bytes);
-    expand_bytes = MAX2(expand_bytes, min_expand_bytes);
-    expand_bytes = MIN2(expand_bytes, uncommitted_bytes);
+    double scale_factor = 1.0;
+
+    // If the current size is less than 1/4 of the Initial heap size, expand
+    // by half of the delta between the current and Initial sizes. IE, grow
+    // back quickly.
+    //
+    // Otherwise, take the current size, or G1ExpandByPercentOfAvailable % of
+    // the available expansion space, whichever is smaller, as the base
+    // expansion size. Then possibly scale this size according to how much the
+    // threshold has (on average) been exceeded by. If the delta is small
+    // (less than the StartScaleDownAt value), scale the size down linearly, but
+    // not by less than MinScaleDownFactor. If the delta is large (greater than
+    // the StartScaleUpAt value), scale up, but adding no more than MaxScaleUpFactor
+    // times the base size. The scaling will be linear in the range from
+    // StartScaleUpAt to (StartScaleUpAt + ScaleUpRange). In other words,
+    // ScaleUpRange sets the rate of scaling up.
+    if (committed_bytes < InitialHeapSize / 4) {
+      expand_bytes = (InitialHeapSize - committed_bytes) / 2;
+    } else {
+      double const MinScaleDownFactor = 0.2;
+      double const MaxScaleUpFactor = 2;
+      double const StartScaleDownAt = _gc_overhead_perc;
+      double const StartScaleUpAt = _gc_overhead_perc * 1.5;
+      double const ScaleUpRange = _gc_overhead_perc * 2.0;
+
+      double ratio_delta;
+      if (filled_history_buffer) {
+        ratio_delta = recent_gc_overhead - threshold;
+      } else {
+        ratio_delta = (_ratio_over_threshold_sum/_ratio_over_threshold_count) - threshold;
+      }
+
+      expand_bytes = MIN2(expand_bytes_via_pct, committed_bytes);
+      if (ratio_delta < StartScaleDownAt) {
+        scale_factor = ratio_delta / StartScaleDownAt;
+        scale_factor = MAX2(scale_factor, MinScaleDownFactor);
+      } else if (ratio_delta > StartScaleUpAt) {
+        scale_factor = 1 + ((ratio_delta - StartScaleUpAt) / ScaleUpRange);
+        scale_factor = MIN2(scale_factor, MaxScaleUpFactor);
+      }
+    }
 
     ergo_verbose5(ErgoHeapSizing,
                   "attempt heap expansion",
                   ergo_format_reason("recent GC overhead higher than "
                                      "threshold after GC")
                   ergo_format_perc("recent GC overhead")
-                  ergo_format_perc("threshold")
+                  ergo_format_perc("current threshold")
                   ergo_format_byte("uncommitted")
-                  ergo_format_byte_perc("calculated expansion amount"),
+                  ergo_format_byte_perc("base expansion amount and scale"),
                   recent_gc_overhead, threshold,
                   uncommitted_bytes,
-                  expand_bytes_via_pct, (double) G1ExpandByPercentOfAvailable);
+                  expand_bytes, scale_factor * 100);
+
+    expand_bytes = static_cast<size_t>(expand_bytes * scale_factor);
+
+    // Ensure the expansion size is at least the minimum growth amount
+    // and at most the remaining uncommitted byte size.
+    expand_bytes = MAX2(expand_bytes, min_expand_bytes);
+    expand_bytes = MIN2(expand_bytes, uncommitted_bytes);
 
-    return expand_bytes;
+    clear_ratio_check_data();
   } else {
-    return 0;
+    // An expansion was not triggered. If we've started counting, increment
+    // the number of checks we've made in the current window.  If we've
+    // reached the end of the window without resizing, clear the counters to
+    // start again the next time we see a ratio above the threshold.
+    if (_ratio_over_threshold_count > 0) {
+      _pauses_since_start++;
+      if (_pauses_since_start > NumPrevPausesForHeuristics) {
+        clear_ratio_check_data();
+      }
+    }
   }
+
+  return expand_bytes;
 }
 
 void G1CollectorPolicy::print_tracing_info() const {